Thursday, 7 November 2024
by BD Banks
Polymarket, the crypto-based prediction platform, has closed its US Presidential election bets market, with the trading volume reaching $3.6 billion. Major news networks, including The Associated Press, Fox, and NBC, confirmed Donald Trump’s victory, so the platform resolved Trump as the winner.
However, a brief dispute window remains for users to challenge the resolution, but with top sources backing the outcome, overturning it seems unlikely. Polymarket has attracted attention for its unique approach, which allows users to bet on various political and societal events through its prediction market platform.
Polymarket’s decentralized approach offers an alternative to traditional polls since financial stakes are tied to these predictions. In this election cycle, the platform saw an influx of interest as people placed bets on who would become the next president.
Over the campaign period, Trump maintained a strong showing on Polymarket, with peak odds of 71.5%, especially after an assassination attempt in July. His primary competitor, Kamala Harris, held her highest chance of winning in August at 54%.
Before election day, traditional polls showed Harris slightly ahead by a percentage point. A last-minute poll from Iowa predicted Harris’s lead would be three points.
The final tallies for Polymarket’s election bets included $1.5 billion for Trump and $1 billion for Harris. Lesser amounts were also available for other potential candidates, including Joe Biden at $72 million, Michelle Obama at $153 million, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at $141 million; even Kanye West attracted $9 million in bets.
Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan expressed satisfaction with the result, claiming it as a win for prediction markets. “Trust the markets, not the polls,” he stated on social media, adding that the Trump campaign team first learned of their victory from Polymarket’s data.
While the market currently sees a 95% chance of Trump’s inauguration, a small percentage predicts other outcomes. With the election cycle over, Polymarket must consider ways to sustain its user engagement without high-stakes events.
Despite its popularity, Polymarket charges no fees, relying on previous Series B funding of $70 million.
Crypto whales betting on Donald Trump’s victory reaped millions through the decentralized prediction market, Polymarket. The largest account, “Theo4,” earned over $20.4 million in profit, as revealed by data analytics platform Lookonchain on November 6.
Another top whale, identified as “Fredi9999,” amassed around $15.6 million in profit, while a third whale, “zxgngl,” secured over $11 million. Throughout October, ten whale accounts collectively wagered $70.6 million in USD Coin (USDC) on a Trump win.
This level of investment spiked Trump’s odds on Polymarket, driving up the “Yes” shares for his victory to over 60% by mid-October. Key transactions included Fredi9999’s October 18 purchase of $20 million in “Yes” shares, which pushed Trump’s odds above 60.2%.
This was followed by zxgngl’s $7.22 million investment on October 28, raising the odds to 66%. With the Associated Press calling the election in Trump’s favor on November 6, the whales’ strategy has paid off.
According to another political bettor, Domer, over half of Trump’s Polymarket “Yes” shares are held by just five whales. Domer noted that these accounts, including Theo4 and Fredi9999, could secure a collective payout exceeding $81 million if all conditions hold.
In contrast, ‘yes’ shares for Vice President Kamala Harris are more distributed. The five largest shareholders in her “Yes” vote control 18% of the total shares, with the highest single account holding 4.4%.
Trump’s top bettor, by comparison, owns nearly a third of all his “Yes” shares, emphasizing the concentration of bets around Trump’s outcome. Hence, Domer claimed that at least four of the top Trump bettors could belong to a single entity confident in Trump’s win.
The post Polymarket Hits $3.6 Billion in Election Bet Trading Volume first appeared on CryptocyNews.com.