Tuesday, 29 October 2024
by BD Banks
It was quite an evening.
Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk recently spoke at a town hall in Lancaster, Pa., in support of former president Donald Trump’s second bid for the White House.
Related: Tesla stock leaps on solid Q3 earnings, delivery growth outlook
Over the course of 2 1/2 hours, the world’s richest man bounced around such topics as space exploration, the Cybertruck, mail-in ballots, and immigration. He dismissed the idea that the Jan. 6 storming of the Capitol by Trump supporters was “some sort of violent insurrection, which is simply not the case,” according to the Associated Press.
“The future of civilization could depend on creating a self-sustaining city on Mars,” he said, noting that “we will be illegal aliens on Mars.”
Meanwhile, back on earth, Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner, a Democrat, blasted the tech billionaire’s controversial $1 million giveaway to registered voters as an “illegal lottery scheme” and filed a lawsuit against Musk and his pro-Trump group, CNN reported.
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The U.S. Justice Department has also warned Musk’s super PAC that his giveaway might violate federal laws that criminalize offering cash for voter registration.
Musk is also running a car company and earlier this month, he unveiled Telsa’s first robotaxi prototype. Unfortunately, investors were not impressed with the lack of details and shares tumbled the following day.
More recently, the company posted better-than-expected third-quarter earnings on Oct. 23, with profit margins surging nearly two percentage points as the cost of producing its signature EVs fell to a record low and global pricing stabilized.
“We think what we’re doing is the right approach,” Musk told analysts during the company’s earnings call. “And if we execute on our objectives, I think we will, my prediction is Tesla will become the most valuable company in the world and probably by a long shot.”
Related: Tesla analysts update views after Q3 deliveries
And Musk repeated his claim that “the future is autonomous.”
“I’ve actually said this many years ago,” he said, “but that in my strong belief and I believe that is panning out to be true, very obvious retrospect is that the future is autonomous electric vehicles. And nonautonomous gasoline vehicles here will be like riding a horse and using a foot bone.”
The company’s stock surged after the results, but TheStreet Pro’s Bob Byrne noted that “any time we get a huge post-earnings move, it can be beneficial to step back and examine the perspective of the longer-term price action before jumping in long with both feet.”
“After the big push on Thursday, the stock may need time to digest the move higher; however, if we see a weekly close above $260,” he said. “Tesla may once again become a beneficial member in the Magnificent Seven.”
Musk has said he plans to grow vehicle sales by 30% next year, buoyed by a new, cheaper model and enthusiasm for self-driving software, but Wall Street has been somewhat skeptical of the claim.
“There’s hardly an analyst anywhere in the world who’s going to agree with 20% growth in the company next year” even with a lower cost model, Sam Fiorani, vice president at research firm AutoForecast Solutions, told Reuters. “Tesla, aside from this quarter, has been seeing a slowdown in its demand for its products. And one quarter is not a trend.”
Shareholders have raised concerns in an anonymous Q&A forum opened to retail investors on Say about the “affordable,” “$25,000 car” that fans and analysts have dubbed the Model 2.
Other questions focused on the yet-to-be-released Tesla Roadster and the Tesla Semi truck.
Investments reached a split decision on Tesla shares, with one firm seeing a bright future for the electric vehicle maker while another had some strong reservations.
Analysts at Canaccord Genuity maintained their buy rating on Tesla and booted their price target to $298 from $278 on Oct. 28.
The firm said the new price target represents a heightened expectation of Tesla’s performance and its valuation in the market, according to Investing.com.
The company’s innovative approach to technology and its commitment to expanding its product offerings are key factors contributing to this positive outlook.
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Canaccord Genuity noted that Tesla is recognized for its wide array of growth opportunities that are expected to unfold over the coming years, including advancements and expansions in electric vehicles, autonomy and artificial intelligence, energy storage solutions, and robotics.
Bernstein analysts had a different take on Tesla, as the firm maintained its underperform rating on the stock and $120 price target.
The firm’s analysis suggests that Tesla’s impressive third-quarter margin results were influenced by non-recurring factors such as deferred revenue recognition and favorable commodity contract renewals.
Tesla’s lower lithium costs per car were due to the timing of contract renewals, Bernstein said, which may not continue to improve in the fourth quarter.
Tesla has indicated that it expects its automotive gross margins, excluding deferred revenue and credits, to decrease sequentially. Bernstein’s analysis raises questions about the sustainability of Tesla’s margin strength and the company’s future growth prospects.
In addition, despite Musk’s claims of a significant improvement in FSD performance, third-party data does not seem to support these assertions.
The data indicates only 2.4 times increase in miles to disengagement since February 2022, Bernstein said, which contrasts with the company’s claims of a 100-fold improvement year-to-date.
The firm suggests that Tesla’s anticipated 20%-to-30%-unit growth hinges on both a successful production ramp-up and positive market reception for new models.
However, given Tesla’s history of delays in meeting launch timelines and what the firm perceives as modest differentiation for the new models, the analyst projects a more conservative 16% increase in FY25 volumes, reaching 2.1 million units.
Related: Veteran fund manager sees world of pain coming for stocks